Edit ModuleShow Tags
Edit ModuleShow Tags

Commodities Report: Positive Trends for Proteins



The commodity markets have generally remained under downward pressure during the early summer led by proteins. 

Beef and pork production levels have improved considerably from the shortfalls this spring. In late June, total beef, pork and chicken output was tracking modestly above year ago levels. This compares to year-over-year declines close to 20 percent during the worst shortages of the spring. 

Near slaughter cattle and hog supplies are burdensome due to the earlier production curbs. However, smaller placements into feedlots suggest that once that backlog of cattle are freed, slaughter-ready cattle supplies will tighten. Perhaps as early as late August. In early July, the USDA choice boxed beef cutout, and index of beef prices, was tracking at its lowest level for the time of the year since 2013. 

 Not to be outdone, pork prices were tracking at their least expensive level for the early summer in over a decade.  Margins for hog producers have deteriorated substantially which is being accompanied with a surge in sow slaughter.  Thus, our concerns around the growth of pork supplies for 2021 are building.  

Chicken producers took steps to temper supplies during the spring and early summer due to the reduced food service demand. But margins have improved considerably during the last several weeks and there are signs that better chicken supplies should occur by mid-summer. 

This along with a big hatchery flock are anticipated to fuel solid chicken production expansion for 2021. 

There's a similar story for dairy, especially cheese, with government purchases bringing added support to the markets. 

And margins have jumped for producers much more than chicken, which is expected to cause significantly better dairy supplies later this year and into 2021. 

The U.S. grain crops continue to progress with ratings historically solid.  However, weather could sway the markets into the harvest this fall. 


David Maloni is commodity consultant for American Restaurant Association Inc., a food commodity research, forecasting, consulting, and contract risk management organization founded in 1996 specifically advising the US restaurant and hotel industry and supply chain.


BEEF-Prices are by the pound and based on f.o.b. Omaha carlot.
7/6/20 5/11/20 Difference 7/4/19
Ground Beef 81/19 1.70 4.78 <3.08> 1.99
168 Inside Round (ch.) 2.20 6.72 <4.50> 2.14
180 0x1 Strp (choice) 6.71 10.17 <3.46> 6.26
112a Ribeye (choice) 7.47 11.14 <3.67> 7.72
189a Tender (select) 7.25 11.46 <4.21> 9.74
189a Tender (choice) 7.74 12.06 <4.32> 9.74

 

OIL AND RICE-Prices per pound based on USDA Reports.
7/6/20 5/11/20 Difference 7/4/19
Crude Soybean Oil .275 .249 0.026 .277
Crude Corn Oil .490 .440 0.050 .268
Rice, Long Grain .289 .289 - .241

 

DAIRY-Prices are by the pound and based on USDA reports.
Cheese 7/6/20 5/11/20 Difference 7/4/19
American 2.47 1.23 1.24 1.83
Cheddar (40#) 2.74 1.29 1.45 1.94
Mozzarella 2.82 1.37 1.45 2.01
Butter(AA)
One pound solids 1.75 1.25 0.50 2.41
Class II Cream
Cream 2.45 1.09 1.36 3.17

 

PORK-Prices are by the pound and based on f.o.b. Omaha carlot.
7/6/20 5/11/20 Difference 7/4/19
Belly (bacon) 0.91 1.92 <1.01> 0.95
Spare Rib (3.5& down) 1.55 1.88 <0.33> 1.22
Ham (23-27#) 0.33 0.51 <0.18> 0.62
Bbybck Rib (2-1.75#) 2.99 2.75 0.14 2.62
Tenderloin (1.25#) 2.33 2.62 <0.29> 1.92

 

POULTRY-Prices are by the pound except for eggs (dozen) and based on USDA reports.
Chicken 7/6/20 5/1120 Difference 7/4/19
Wings 1.82 1.52 0.30 1.89
Bnless Skinless Breast 1.20 1.28 <0.08> 1.15
Eggs
Large 0.79 0.99 <0.20> 0.73
Medium 0.58 0.62 <0.04> 0.44
Miscellaneous
Whole Turkeys (8-16#) 1.08 1.05 0.03 0.87

 

PRODUCE-Prices are by the case and are based on USDA reports.
7/6/20 5/11/20 Difference 7/4/19
Limes (150 ct.) 11.00 13.00 <2.00> 11.00
Lemons (200 ct.) 27.70 23.42 4.28 32.97
Cantaloupe (18 ct.) 17.20 10.95 6.25 6.73
Strawberries (12 pts) 13.00 8.50 4.50 11.00
Avocds (Hass 48ct.) 33.17 40.25 <7.08> 77.17
Idaho Potato (70 ct.) 13.75 12.00 1.75 15.00
Yellow Onions (50 lb.) 12.00 6.83 5.17 19.75
Red Onions (25 lb.) 10.67 10.64 0.03 18.58
White Onions (50 lb.) 20.12 21.27 <1.15> 30.42
Tomatoes (5X6-25lb.) 13.20 27.95 <14.75> 14.95
Roma Tomatoes 11.95 11.81 0.14 9.35
Green Peppers 26.78 21.63 5.15 13.28
Iceberg Lettuce 16.19 7.94 8.25 28.15
Leaf Lettuce 10.61 7.72 2.89 29.05
Romaine Lettuce 20.02 8.16 11.86 25.09
Broccoli (14 ct.) 14.60 7.39 7.21 7.83

 

Market information provided by David Maloni of ArrowStream.  ArrowStream is a foodservice supply chain technology company that helps clients capitalize on data to improve their business.  Learn more at ArrowStream.com

*Covered party (as defined below) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages of any kind whatsoever (including attorney’s fees and lost profits or savings) in any way due to, resulting from, or arising in connection with the Monthly Commodity Report, including its content, regardless of any negligence of the covered party including but not limited to technical inaccuracies and typographical errors.  “Covered Party” means the American Restaurant Association Inc. and the employees of.  © 2020 ArrowStream

Edit ModuleShow Tags
Edit ModuleShow Tags